South West & Wales to Midlands — Period 2 2026-27 (26 April – 23 May) report
South West & Wales to Midlands recorded 69% A2F punctuality in Period 2 2026-27 (26 April – 23 May 2026) on 671 freight services, up 1 percentage point from 68% in Period 1 2026-27 on a smaller denominator. The intervals overlap with the prior period. PRELIMINARY at T+2; FINAL re-publication at T+35 after Network Rail's batch correction.
- Edition
- v1.0 (industry review edition)
- Last updated
- 28 May 2026
- Next update
- Period 3 2026-27 — late June 2026
Headline facts and figures
Services monitored
671
Journeys traversing the South West & Wales to Midlands corridor between 26 April and 23 May 2026; corridor-attributed; baseline 980 services in Period 1 2026-27, see data-window methodology; queried gauge_intelligence_v2 at 2026-05-28
A2F punctuality
69%
90% Wilson interval 66%–72%, 671 services; baseline 68% (66%–71%) over 980 services in Period 1 2026-27 — ranges overlap; queried gauge_intelligence_v2 at 2026-05-28
Change on prior period
+1 percentage point
Headline A2F up 1 percentage point on Period 1 2026-27; intervals overlap with the prior period, so the move sits within plausible sampling variation on the smaller Period 2 denominator, see league-table methodology; queried gauge_intelligence_v2 at 2026-05-28
Cancellations
—
Cancellation breakdown panel below reports corridor cancellations for Period 2 2026-27
Context
ORR publishes no corridor-level freight performance; this page publishes operator-by-operator standings on the South West & Wales to Midlands corridor. Material to FOCs operating Welsh ports steel and intermodal flows and to Network Rail's Wales & Borders route performance team.
What you can do with it
- See every operator's South West & Wales to Midlands rank for the period, with partial-pool stabilisation for small samples.
- Quantify the corridor's CP7 exposure window.
- Cite the methodology, not a vendor's number, in negotiations.
Who can use it
Freight operations leaders · Track-access negotiators · Wales & Borders route performance · Rail journalists
What this page measures
The page makes three things possible. Every shared corridor is ranked: an operator's A2F sits next to active peer freight operators on that corridor, with a 90% interval around each figure. A period's CP7 exposure is computed from the operator's own services rather than national aggregates. The methodology behind each figure is named, dated, and reproducible, so track-access negotiations and academic citations can reference the published method rather than a vendor's number.
The South West & Wales to Midlands corridor carried 671 freight services between 26 April and 23 May 2026 (Period 2 of the 2026-27 rail year). Figures aggregate every monitored journey that traversed at least one of the corridor's 10 monitoring points, drawn from Network Rail's NROD/TRUST feed. This is the third published period for the South West & Wales to Midlands corridor; the prior period (Period 1 2026-27) carried 980 services at 68% A2F. The corridor runs from Port Talbot Docks through Bridgend, Cardiff, Severn Tunnel Junction — with Newport and Wentloog serving Welsh intermodal — north via Bristol and Gloucester to Birmingham New Street, carrying steel from Margam and South Wales ports.
What changed since Period 1 2026-27
Corridor A2F punctuality stood at 69% over 671 services, with a 90% Wilson interval of 66%–72%. The headline share is 1 percentage point above the 68% recorded in Period 1 2026-27, and the intervals overlap with the prior period — the corridor sits at the same operating level on a smaller Period 2 denominator. Services monitored fell by 309 on the prior period; the corridor-attributed figure does not separate timetable change, traffic mix, or absent operators from underlying corridor performance, and this report does not attribute the volume movement to a specific cause.
Daily on-time arrivals across Period 2 2026-27
Daily on-time arrivals are up 1.4 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27 (68% then, 69% now).
Range 55%–82% across 28 days. Weekend mean 65% vs weekday 71% (-5.3 percentage points). Mean 69%.
Period 2 2026-27 daily A2F averaged 70% across 28 observations. Day-to-day variation was consistent with a stable process — no statistical-signal rule triggered.
Mean punctuality in Period 1 2026-27 was 68%. The current period is up 1.4 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27.
Source: Gauge Intelligence NROD-derived journey data, Period 2 2026-27. A service is counted on time when terminal arrival falls within 15 minutes of schedule. Days with no scheduled services (typically Sundays) render as gaps — a missing bar means no measurement, not a value at zero. Red bars flag days that triggered a statistical signal — see anomaly-detection methodology.
ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release publishes by Network Rail region and route, not by operator. This page publishes by operator and corridor.
Cancellation rate
In Period 2 2026-27, 4% of scheduled services were cancelled (25 of 681) — within the national mean of 4%; FOC traction, crew, and terminal decisions accounted for the largest share.
Cancellations are down 4.60 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27 (8% then, 4% now). The largest shifts in the responsible-party split are reported in the table below.
| Scheduled or activated paths | 681 |
| Cancelled (post-activation + pre-activation) | 25 |
| Cancellation rate | 4% 3%–5% |
| National cancellation rate (all freight) | 4% |
Attribution
| Responsible party | Cancellations | Share of cancelled |
|---|---|---|
| Network Rail infrastructure and possessions | 3 | 12% |
| FOC traction, crew, and terminal decisions | 17 | 68% |
| Third party | 1 | 4% |
| Unattributed | 4 | 16% |
Cancellation rate in Period 1 2026-27 was 8% across 1,040 scheduled paths. The current period is down 4.60 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27.
Source: NROD/TRUST activation feed and BPLAN scheduled paths, Period 2 2026-27. Cancellation rate = (post-activation + pre-activation cancellations) ÷ scheduled or activated paths. Pre-activation cancellations are TRUST CANCEL messages on schedules that never activated; post-activation cancellations have an activation and a CANCEL event. The bracketed range beside the headline rate is the 90% confidence range on the cancellation proportion given the sample size. Cause attribution uses the responsible-party mapping of the recorded cancellation reason code; see delay-attribution methodology.
What the 15-minute threshold hides
Half of Period 2 2026-27 services arrived within +7 min of timetable. The long tail the A2F binary misses: 5% of services ran +66 min or more late, and 1% arrived over +123 min late. The 15-minute A2F threshold sits at the 69th percentile — 31% of services exceeded it.
Median arrival delay is essentially unchanged on Period 1 2026-27 (7 min then, 7 min now).
| Percentile | Arrival delay |
|---|---|
| 50th percentile (median) — A2F threshold sits at the 69th percentile | +7 min |
| 75th percentile | +19 min |
| 85th percentile | +30 min |
| 90th percentile | +41 min |
| 95th percentile | +66 min |
| 99th percentile | +123 min |
656 services with confirmed terminal arrival in Period 2 2026-27. A2F is binary at 15 minutes — this distribution surfaces what the headline figure does not show. National 99th percentile across all freight operators: 95 min.
Baseline (Period 1 2026-27): median +7 min, p99 +117 min. Period-on-period median shift +0 min.
ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release publishes by Network Rail region and route, not by operator. This page publishes by operator and corridor.
Operator activity on South West & Wales to Midlands
Operator ranking on South West & Wales to Midlands for Period 2 2026-27 is deferred while the v1.0 industry review edition corrections inbox remains open. Publishing a corridor-level ranking against named operators before the launch-cohort corrections cycle closes would treat provisional figures as settled. The ranking returns at v2.0 general availability.
The framework the panel uses — partial-pool shrinkage toward the corridor mean, with rank order taken from the pooled estimate rather than the raw observed rate — is documented at league-table methodology. The schedule for v2.0 general availability is at release cadence.
Source: Gauge Intelligence NROD-derived journey data, Period 2 2026-27. Per-operator counts and single-operator A2F on this corridor continue to appear in the corridor performance panels above; the corridor-internal ranking against peers is the panel deferred here.
Path utilisation
Ran 357 of 1,456 booked paths (25%, 90% Wilson 23%–26%) on South West & Wales to Midlands in Period 2 2026-27. 1,099 ghost paths (booked, not run).
In plain terms: a booked path is a freight slot reserved in Network Rail's Working Timetable that traverses this corridor's monitoring chain. A run path is a booked path that activated and produced a journey segment on the corridor. A ghost path is a booked slot that produced no corridor traversal — capacity held in the timetable that the operator did not use, typically because the underlying contract did not call the path or the service was withdrawn before the day. A sub-100% rate is normal: the Working Timetable carries contingency and capacity-reservation paths by design. See the path-utilisation methodology.
| Booked paths (non-STP-cancelled) | 1,456 |
| Run | 357 |
| Ghost paths | 1,099 |
| Activation rate | 25% 23%–26% |
Baseline (baseline) activation rate 33% across 1,928 booked paths; period-on-period delta -8.3pp.
Free tier: corridor-wide activation rate and ghost count for Period 2 2026-27. Per-operator decomposition and per-path scheduling-pattern analysis are released to commercial-licence subscribers.
Source: BPLAN schedule import and TRUST journey activation feeds, Period 2 2026-27.
STP precedence (C > O > N > P) is applied per (train_uid, date) pair via
Schedule.effective_for; STP-cancelled path-days are excluded from the booked count.
VSTP activations (no Schedule row) are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
The UID universe for "booked on this corridor" is FreightService UIDs that have ever produced
a journey segment on this corridor; see
path-utilisation methodology.
90% Wilson interval on the proportion.
Schedule 8 net position
Schedule 8 net-position figures depend on Network Rail's Historic Delay Attribution release, which is published roughly four to six weeks after period close. The teaser will update once HDA is ingested. Methodology is published independently of release timing.
Per-corridor and per-day Schedule 8 net-position figures, and the full responsibility-party breakdown, are released to commercial-licence subscribers.
Source: Network Rail Historic Delay Attribution (HDA) for Period 2 2026-27,
ingested into delay_attributions with source: "trust".
CP7 rates are published by ORR and applied uniformly across all operators.
See delay-attribution methodology.
Delay attribution party split
Delay-attribution party breakdowns depend on Network Rail's Historic Delay Attribution release, which is published roughly four to six weeks after period close. The teaser will update once HDA is ingested. Methodology is published independently of release timing.
Cause-code level breakdowns and per-corridor decomposition are released to commercial-licence subscribers.
Source: Network Rail Historic Delay Attribution (HDA) for Period 2 2026-27.
Responsibility parties follow the DAPR mapping in the delay_attribution_codes table.
See delay-attribution methodology.
What this page does not measure
Pre-activation cancellations fall outside the dataset: TRUST requires an activation event before it records a journey, so services cancelled before activation produce no TRUST record. VSTPs are excluded from the path-utilisation denominator because no Working Timetable row exists against which to measure them. Journeys without a confirmed terminal arrival are excluded from the delay distribution. The 15-minute A2F threshold is a regulatory artefact, not a natural cut-off — the "What the 15-minute threshold hides" panel surfaces the distribution behind that line.
Commercial licence
Four derivations are released to commercial-licence subscribers rather than the public archive. Each one reconciles TRUST source-data against Network Rail's Historic Delay Attribution record independently, not republished from public statistics.
- Schedule 8 net position
- Why late — delay attribution
- Schedule 4 possession exposure
- Path utilisation — corridor breakdown
Available under commercial licence. Contact [email protected] for subscription terms.
Methodology & sources
All figures derive from Network Rail's NROD TRUST feed, processed via the Gauge Intelligence ingest pipeline. Period definitions, A2F (Arrival to Fifteen), the Wilson 90% interval, daily anomaly rules, cross-view reconciliation, and delay attribution are documented at:
Data window — period boundaries and the data-as-of cutoff
League tables — cross-view reconciliation across the four analytical views
Anomaly detection — daily A2F SPC rules
Delay attribution — DAPR cause-code breakdown
Forecasting — prediction intervals and possession-exposure estimates
Methodology
Corridor-level A2F punctuality is measured at the South West & Wales to Midlands corridor's 10 monitoring points spanning the Port Talbot Docks-to-Birmingham New Street route via Neath, Bridgend, Cardiff Central, Severn Tunnel Junction, Bristol Temple Meads, Bristol Parkway, Gloucester, and Worcester Shrub Hill. A service is counted on time if it arrives at the terminal within fifteen minutes of schedule. The 90% confidence interval on each share uses the Wilson score method on the observed denominator. Severity bands across panels apply consistent thresholds: an SPC run-rule trigger on the daily series flags a day as anomalous, and gaps between operator rankings of more than 10 percentage points raise the peer panel into the alert band. See the anomaly-detection methodology for the SPC rules.
Operator rankings on the South West & Wales to Midlands corridor aggregate per operator via TRUST toc_id across every corridor segment traversal in the window, then apply partial-pool shrinkage so small-sample operators stabilise toward the corridor mean. Cross-view reconciliation across the four views (by operator, by destination, by flow, by corridor) is documented in the league-table methodology. Period boundaries and the data-as-of cutoff are documented in the data-window methodology. Data derives from Network Rail's NROD TRUST feed, processed via the Gauge Intelligence NROD pipeline.
The corridor's Schedule 8 net position, the Network Rail / freight-operator delay-attribution breakdown, the per-operator and per-path-quality ghost-path decomposition, the per-operator path-utilisation detail, and Schedule 4 possession exposure for the South West & Wales to Midlands corridor are released to commercial-licence subscribers. The intraday A2F pattern panel is deferred for corridor pages pending the segment-attributed intraday model; this exclusion is disclosed here per the analytical-rigour discipline applied across published pages.
Regulatory context
Network Rail's Control Period 7 obligation, fixed in ORR's PR23 conclusions, imposes a 1.3% target on the Freight Cancellations and Lateness (FCaL) metric by March 2029. A2F is the operator-perspective version of the same threshold: the cancellation-plus-lateness measure that drives the obligation. ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release records that its statistical publications do not compare results against targets. This page does, against the CP7 target and over time.
Revisions
No revisions to date.
A revision restates a published figure because the upstream data changed, typically a Network Rail delay-attribution refresh. The minor tier is corrected in the next release; cells affected carry an (r) flag. The intermediate tier triggers immediate amendment with an (r) flag. The wholesale tier is flagged at the top of the page and notified directly to operators and rail journalists subscribed to revision alerts.
Corrections
No corrections to date.
A correction fixes an error in the published output: an arithmetic slip, a typo, a mis-rendered chart. Revisions are different; they restate a figure because the upstream data changed. The distinction matters because corrections never silently rewrite a published number.