Mendip Rail — Period 2 2026-27 (26 April – 23 May) report
Mendip Rail ran 419 freight services in Period 2 2026-27 at 92% A2F punctuality, against a national freight mean of 90% over 12,042 services. A2F was effectively unchanged on Period 13 2025-26 (92%); the 90% Wilson intervals overlap. PRELIMINARY at T+2; FINAL re-publication at T+35 after Network Rail's batch correction. Schedule 8 monetises every minute of attributable delay at CP7 rates: £25.81/min (NR-to-FOC) and £51.98/min (FOC-to-NR).
- Edition
- v1.0 (industry review edition)
- Last updated
- 28 May 2026
- Next update
- Period 3 2026-27 — late June 2026
Headline facts and figures
Services monitored
419
15.0/day across the national network; Period 2 2026-27 (26 Apr – 23 May 2026); NROD-derived journey data, cancellations excluded; baseline 490 services in Period 1 2026-27, see data-window methodology; queried gauge_intelligence_v2 at 2026-05-28
A2F punctuality
92%
90% Wilson interval 89%–94%, 419 services; national mean across all freight operators 90% over 12,042 services in Period 2 2026-27, see league-table methodology; queried gauge_intelligence_v2 at 2026-05-28
Daily A2F range
73%–100%
28 calendar days; daily values normally fell between 73% and 100% around a 92% period mean; day-to-day variation was consistent with a stable process, see anomaly-detection methodology; queried gauge_intelligence_v2 at 2026-05-28
Peer comparison
1 of 14
Shared corridors on which Mendip Rail ranked first against peer freight operators; below at least one peer on the remaining 13; aggregated by operator from TRUST toc_id, see league-table methodology; queried gauge_intelligence_v2 at 2026-05-28
Context
ORR publishes aggregates only; this page publishes operator-by-corridor data. Material to bid teams and track-access negotiators given CP7 rates of £25.81/min (NR-to-FOC) and £51.98/min (FOC-to-NR).
What you can do with it
- Compare any operator to peers on every shared corridor.
- Quantify a period's CP7 exposure.
- Cite the methodology, not a vendor's number, in negotiations.
Who can use it
Freight operations leaders · Track-access negotiators · Freight procurement teams · Rail journalists
What this page measures
The page makes three things possible. Every shared corridor is ranked: an operator's A2F sits next to active peer freight operators on that corridor, with a 90% interval around each figure. A period's CP7 exposure is computed from the operator's own services rather than national aggregates. The methodology behind each figure is named, dated, and reproducible, so track-access negotiations and academic citations can reference the published method rather than a vendor's number.
Mendip Rail ran 419 freight services across the national network between 26 April and 23 May 2026 (Period 2 of the 2026-27 rail year). Stone flows continued from the Mendip quarries in Somerset to receiving terminals across the South and Midlands. Figures aggregate every monitored Mendip Rail journey. The dataset is keyed by toc_id from Network Rail's NROD/TRUST feed; cancellations are excluded from the denominator. The commercial-licence panel near the foot lists the four derivations released to subscribers.
What changed since Period 1 2026-27
A2F punctuality rose by two percentage points to 92% in Period 2 2026-27 from 90% in Period 1 2026-27. The 90% Wilson intervals overlap (89%–94% vs 88%–92%) and the change between periods sits within plausible sampling variation. Services monitored fell from 490 to 419 — a drop of 71 services that reflects the May Day bank holiday weekend and seasonal traffic-mix variation, not punctuality alone.
Schedule 8 net position, delay-attribution split, and the corridor-level CP7 exposure breakdown are released to commercial-licence subscribers after period reconciliation. Each shift is reported descriptively; underlying causes sit beyond what the corridor-attributed feed can resolve and are out of scope for this page.
Daily on-time arrivals across Period 2 2026-27
Daily on-time arrivals are up 1.3 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27 (90% then, 92% now).
Range 73%–100% across 28 days. Weekend mean 89% vs weekday 93% (-3.8 percentage points). Mean 92%.
Period 2 2026-27 daily A2F averaged 97% across 28 observations. One or more observations fell outside the expected range (9 day(s) beyond the expected range; 6 run(s) of two-of-three days off-mean; 2 run(s) of four-of-five days off-mean), indicating an unusual event rather than ordinary noise.
Mean punctuality in Period 1 2026-27 was 90%. The current period is up 1.3 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27.
Source: Gauge Intelligence NROD-derived journey data, Period 2 2026-27. A service is counted on time when terminal arrival falls within 15 minutes of schedule. Days with no scheduled services (typically Sundays) render as gaps — a missing bar means no measurement, not a value at zero. Red bars flag days that triggered a statistical signal — see anomaly-detection methodology.
ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release publishes by Network Rail region and route, not by operator. This page publishes by operator and corridor.
Cancellation rate
In Period 2 2026-27, 2% of scheduled services were cancelled (6 of 316) — within the national mean of 4%; FOC traction, crew, and terminal decisions accounted for the largest share.
Cancellations are down 0.40 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27 (2% then, 2% now). The largest shifts in the responsible-party split are reported in the table below.
| Scheduled or activated paths | 316 |
| Cancelled (post-activation + pre-activation) | 6 |
| Cancellation rate | 2% 1%–4% |
| National cancellation rate (all freight) | 4% |
Attribution
| Responsible party | Cancellations | Share of cancelled |
|---|---|---|
| Network Rail infrastructure and possessions | 1 | 17% |
| FOC traction, crew, and terminal decisions | 4 | 67% |
| Third party | 0 | 0% |
| Unattributed | 1 | 17% |
Cancellation rate in Period 1 2026-27 was 2% across 386 scheduled paths. The current period is down 0.40 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27.
Source: NROD/TRUST activation feed and BPLAN scheduled paths, Period 2 2026-27. Cancellation rate = (post-activation + pre-activation cancellations) ÷ scheduled or activated paths. Pre-activation cancellations are TRUST CANCEL messages on schedules that never activated; post-activation cancellations have an activation and a CANCEL event. The bracketed range beside the headline rate is the 90% confidence range on the cancellation proportion given the sample size. Cause attribution uses the responsible-party mapping of the recorded cancellation reason code; see delay-attribution methodology.
Mendip and peer operators, by shared corridor
The per-corridor league table for Mendip is deferred while the v1.0 industry review edition corrections inbox remains open. Comparative ranking against peer freight operators on each shared corridor returns at v2.0 general availability, after the launch-cohort corrections cycle closes and the dataset has been reviewed by industry readers. The league-table methodology sets out the partial-pool estimator and the Wilson interval framework the panel will use; the release cadence page sets out the four exit criteria for v2.0 and the schedule against which they are measured.
Source: Gauge Intelligence NROD-derived journey data, Period 2 2026-27. Single-operator Wilson intervals on shared corridors continue to appear in the per-corridor breakdowns above; the per-corridor ranking against peers is the panel deferred here.
What the 15-minute threshold hides
Half of Period 2 2026-27 services arrived early — the median was 5 min ahead of timetable. The long tail the A2F binary misses: 5% of services ran +51 min or more late, and 1% arrived over +257 min late. The 15-minute A2F threshold sits at the 88th percentile — 12% of services exceeded it.
Median arrival delay is 1 minutes earlier than Period 1 2026-27 (median was -4 min then, -5 min now).
| Percentile | Arrival delay |
|---|---|
| 50th percentile (median) — A2F threshold sits at the 88th percentile | -5 min |
| 75th percentile — A2F threshold sits at the 88th percentile | +2 min |
| 85th percentile — A2F threshold sits at the 88th percentile | +6 min |
| 90th percentile | +21 min |
| 95th percentile | +51 min |
| 99th percentile | +257 min |
196 services with confirmed terminal arrival in Period 2 2026-27. A2F is binary at 15 minutes — this distribution surfaces what the headline figure does not show. National 99th percentile across all freight operators: 95 min.
Baseline (Period 1 2026-27): median -4 min, p99 +167 min. Period-on-period median shift -1 min.
ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release publishes by Network Rail region and route, not by operator. This page publishes by operator and corridor.
Intraday pattern
Sat (100%) is 7.6 percentage points above Tue (92%), the weakest day in Period 2 2026-27.
The 16-20 departure window records 88% A2F — 10.4 percentage points below the 00-04 peak (99%) in Period 2 2026-27.
The day-of-week spread is wider by 2.4 percentage points on Period 1 2026-27 — punctuality varies more across the working week than the prior period.
By day of week
| Day | Services | A2F% | 90% Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 69 | 93% | 86%–96% |
| Tue | 79 | 92% | 86%–96% |
| Wed | 68 | 97% | 92%–99% |
| Thu | 62 | 94% | 86%–97% |
| Fri | 45 | 93% | 84%–97% |
| Sat | 34 | 100% | 93%–100% |
| Sun | 62 | 95% | 89%–98% |
By departure hour
| Departure window | Services | A2F% | 90% Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-04 | 72 | 99% | 94%–100% |
| 04-08 | 114 | 97% | 94%–99% |
| 08-12 | 35 | 97% | 88%–99% |
| 12-16 | 3 | 100% | 53%–100% |
| 16-20 | 17 | 88% | 70%–96% |
| 20-24 | 178 | 91% | 87%–94% |
Baseline (Period 1 2026-27) day-of-week spread delta: +2.4 percentage points.
Source: NROD-derived journey data, Period 2 2026-27.
Day-of-week is ISO (Mon=1..Sun=7). Hour windows are 4-hour buckets keyed off
TRUST origin_dep_timestamp. A2F threshold is 15 minutes on terminal
arrival. 90% Wilson interval on each cell's proportion.
Path utilisation
Activated 279 of 316 scheduled paths (88%, 90% range 85%–91%) in Period 2 2026-27 — +59.7 percentage points above the national freight-operator mean of 29%. 37 ghost paths (scheduled, not activated).
In plain terms: a scheduled path is a freight slot reserved in Network Rail's Working Timetable. An activated path is one where TRUST recorded the train starting its run. A ghost path is a scheduled slot that produced no activation — capacity held in the timetable that the operator did not use, typically because the underlying contract did not call the path or the service was withdrawn before the day. A sub-100% rate is normal: the Working Timetable carries contingency and capacity-reservation paths by design. See the path-utilisation methodology for how scheduled, activated, and ghost paths are derived.
| Scheduled paths (after STP precedence) | 316 |
| Activated | 279 |
| Ghost paths | 37 |
| STP-cancelled (excluded from denominator) | 0 |
| Activation rate | 88% 85%–91% |
| National FOC mean | 29% |
Free-tier: operator-total activation rate and ghost count for Period 2 2026-27. Per-corridor path utilisation, per-path scheduling-pattern analysis, and spot-contract renewal guidance are released to commercial-licence subscribers. The activation rate measures Working-Timetable path-days that materialised as activations — not operator delivery performance against intent. Capacity-reservation paths and contingency optionality in the WTT mean a sub-100% rate is a transparency datum, not a delivery indictment.
Source: BPLAN schedule import and TRUST journey activation feeds, Period 2 2026-27.
STP precedence (C > O > N > P) is applied per (train_uid, date) pair via Schedule.effective_for; STP-cancelled path-days are excluded from the denominator.
VSTP activations (no Schedule row) are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
90% Wilson interval on the proportion. National FOC mean computed across the known FOC universe in the same window —
see path-utilisation methodology.
Schedule 8 net position
Schedule 8 net-position figures depend on Network Rail's Historic Delay Attribution release, which is published roughly four to six weeks after period close. The teaser will update once HDA is ingested. Methodology is published independently of release timing.
Per-corridor and per-day Schedule 8 net-position figures, and the full responsibility-party breakdown, are released to commercial-licence subscribers.
Source: Network Rail Historic Delay Attribution (HDA) for Period 2 2026-27,
ingested into delay_attributions with source: "trust".
CP7 rates are published by ORR and applied uniformly across all operators.
See delay-attribution methodology.
Delay attribution party split
Delay-attribution party breakdowns depend on Network Rail's Historic Delay Attribution release, which is published roughly four to six weeks after period close. The teaser will update once HDA is ingested. Methodology is published independently of release timing.
Cause-code level breakdowns and per-corridor decomposition are released to commercial-licence subscribers.
Source: Network Rail Historic Delay Attribution (HDA) for Period 2 2026-27.
Responsibility parties follow the DAPR mapping in the delay_attribution_codes table.
See delay-attribution methodology.
What this page does not measure
Pre-activation cancellations fall outside the dataset: TRUST requires an activation event before it records a journey, so services cancelled before activation produce no TRUST record. VSTPs are excluded from the path-utilisation denominator because no Working Timetable row exists against which to measure them. Journeys without a confirmed terminal arrival are excluded from the delay distribution. The 15-minute A2F threshold is a regulatory artefact, not a natural cut-off — the "What the 15-minute threshold hides" panel surfaces the distribution behind that line.
Commercial licence
Four derivations are released to commercial-licence subscribers rather than the public archive. Each one reconciles TRUST source-data against Network Rail's Historic Delay Attribution record independently, not republished from public statistics.
- Schedule 8 net position
- Why late — delay attribution
- Schedule 4 possession exposure
- Path utilisation — corridor breakdown
Available under commercial licence. Contact [email protected] for subscription terms.
Methodology & sources
All figures derive from Network Rail's NROD TRUST feed, processed via the Gauge Intelligence ingest pipeline. Period definitions, A2F (Arrival to Fifteen), the Wilson 90% interval, daily anomaly rules, cross-view reconciliation, and delay attribution are documented at:
Data window — period boundaries and the data-as-of cutoff
League tables — cross-view reconciliation across the four analytical views
Anomaly detection — daily A2F SPC rules
Delay attribution — DAPR cause-code breakdown
Forecasting — prediction intervals and possession-exposure estimates
Regulatory context
Network Rail's Control Period 7 obligation, fixed in ORR's PR23 conclusions, imposes a 1.3% target on the Freight Cancellations and Lateness (FCaL) metric by March 2029. A2F is the operator-perspective version of the same threshold: the cancellation-plus-lateness measure that drives the obligation. ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release records that its statistical publications do not compare results against targets. This page does, against the CP7 target and over time.
Revisions
No revisions to date.
A revision restates a published figure because the upstream data changed, typically a Network Rail delay-attribution refresh. The minor tier is corrected in the next release; cells affected carry an (r) flag. The intermediate tier triggers immediate amendment with an (r) flag. The wholesale tier is flagged at the top of the page and notified directly to operators and rail journalists subscribed to revision alerts.
Corrections
No corrections to date.
A correction fixes an error in the published output: an arithmetic slip, a typo, a mis-rendered chart. Revisions are different; they restate a figure because the upstream data changed. The distinction matters because corrections never silently rewrite a published number.