Heavy Haul Rail — Period 13 2025-26 (1–28 March) report

Daily on-time arrivals across Period 13 2025-26

Daily on-time arrivals are down 15.0 percentage points on Period 12 2025-26 (100% then, 85% now).

Source: Gauge Intelligence NROD-derived journey data, Period 13 2025-26. A service is counted on time when terminal arrival falls within 15 minutes of schedule. Days with no scheduled services (typically Sundays) render as gaps — a missing bar means no measurement, not a value at zero. Red bars flag days that triggered a statistical signal — see anomaly-detection methodology.

ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release publishes by Network Rail region and route, not by operator. This page publishes by operator and corridor.

Cancellation rate

In Period 13 2025-26, 0% of scheduled services were cancelled (0 of 58) — within the national mean of 14%.

Cancellation rate is essentially unchanged on Period 12 2025-26 (0% then, 0% now).

Cancellation rate in Period 12 2025-26 was 0% across 8 scheduled paths. The current period is essentially unchanged.

Source: NROD/TRUST activation feed and BPLAN scheduled paths, Period 13 2025-26. Cancellation rate = (post-activation + pre-activation cancellations) ÷ scheduled or activated paths. Pre-activation cancellations are TRUST CANCEL messages on schedules that never activated; post-activation cancellations have an activation and a CANCEL event. The bracketed range beside the headline rate is the 90% confidence range on the cancellation proportion given the sample size. Cause attribution uses the responsible-party mapping of the recorded cancellation reason code; see delay-attribution methodology.

FLHH and peer operators, by shared corridor

The per-corridor league table for FLHH is deferred while the v1.0 industry review edition corrections inbox remains open. Comparative ranking against peer freight operators on each shared corridor returns at v2.0 general availability, after the launch-cohort corrections cycle closes and the dataset has been reviewed by industry readers. The league-table methodology sets out the partial-pool estimator and the Wilson interval framework the panel will use; the release cadence page sets out the four exit criteria for v2.0 and the schedule against which they are measured.

Source: Gauge Intelligence NROD-derived journey data, Period 13 2025-26. Single-operator Wilson intervals on shared corridors continue to appear in the per-corridor breakdowns above; the per-corridor ranking against peers is the panel deferred here.

What the 15-minute threshold hides

Half of Period 13 2025-26 services arrived on time or better. The long tail the A2F binary misses: 5% of services ran +63 min or more late, and 1% arrived over +115 min late. The 15-minute A2F threshold sits at the 87th percentile — 13% of services exceeded it.

Median arrival delay is 3 minutes later than Period 12 2025-26 (median was -3 min then, 0 min now).

62 services with confirmed terminal arrival in Period 13 2025-26. A2F is binary at 15 minutes — this distribution surfaces what the headline figure does not show. National 99th percentile across all freight operators: 98 min.

Baseline (Period 12 2025-26): median -3 min, p99 +7 min. Period-on-period median shift +3 min.

ORR's Freight rail usage and performance release publishes by Network Rail region and route, not by operator. This page publishes by operator and corridor.

Intraday pattern

Mon (100%) is 100.0 percentage points above Thu (0%), the weakest day in Period 13 2025-26.

The 04-08 departure window records 60% A2F — 40.0 percentage points below the 16-20 peak (100%) in Period 13 2025-26.

The day-of-week spread is wider by 100.0 percentage points on Period 12 2025-26 — punctuality varies more across the working week than the prior period.

By day of week

By departure hour

Baseline (Period 12 2025-26) day-of-week spread delta: +100.0 percentage points.

Source: NROD-derived journey data, Period 13 2025-26. Day-of-week is ISO (Mon=1..Sun=7). Hour windows are 4-hour buckets keyed off TRUST origin_dep_timestamp. A2F threshold is 15 minutes on terminal arrival. 90% Wilson interval on each cell's proportion.

Path utilisation

Activated 58 of 58 scheduled paths (100%, 90% range 96%–100%) in Period 13 2025-26 — +58.8 percentage points above the national freight-operator mean of 41%.

In plain terms: a scheduled path is a freight slot reserved in Network Rail's Working Timetable. An activated path is one where TRUST recorded the train starting its run. A ghost path is a scheduled slot that produced no activation — capacity held in the timetable that the operator did not use, typically because the underlying contract did not call the path or the service was withdrawn before the day. A sub-100% rate is normal: the Working Timetable carries contingency and capacity-reservation paths by design. See the path-utilisation methodology for how scheduled, activated, and ghost paths are derived.

Free-tier: operator-total activation rate and ghost count for Period 13 2025-26. Per-corridor path utilisation, per-path scheduling-pattern analysis, and spot-contract renewal guidance are released to commercial-licence subscribers. The activation rate measures Working-Timetable path-days that materialised as activations — not operator delivery performance against intent. Capacity-reservation paths and contingency optionality in the WTT mean a sub-100% rate is a transparency datum, not a delivery indictment.

Source: BPLAN schedule import and TRUST journey activation feeds, Period 13 2025-26. STP precedence (C > O > N > P) is applied per (train_uid, date) pair via Schedule.effective_for; STP-cancelled path-days are excluded from the denominator. VSTP activations (no Schedule row) are excluded from both numerator and denominator. 90% Wilson interval on the proportion. National FOC mean computed across the known FOC universe in the same window — see path-utilisation methodology.

Schedule 8 net position

Bilateral Schedule 8 settlement runs at two rates under CP7: operators pay Network Rail £51.98 per minute of operator-attributed delay; Network Rail pays operators £25.81 per minute of NR-attributed delay. The asymmetry produces a net position on every period for every operator; its sign and size depend on the period's bilateral delay-minute mix at rates that do not move within a control period.

The bilateral net position for Period 13 2025-26 on services operated by Heavy Haul Rail, together with the per-corridor decomposition, the rate-gap counterfactual against an equal-rate benchmark, and the period-on-period swing, is released to commercial-licence subscribers.

Per-corridor and per-day Schedule 8 net-position figures, and the full responsibility-party breakdown, are released to commercial-licence subscribers.

Source: Network Rail Historic Delay Attribution (HDA) for Period 13 2025-26, ingested into delay_attributions with source: "trust". CP7 rates are published by ORR and applied uniformly across all operators. See delay-attribution methodology.

Delay attribution party split

Across 27 attribution rows totalling 166 delay minutes in Period 13 2025-26 for services operated by Heavy Haul Rail, Network Rail carries 0%, operators carry 100%, and third parties carry 0% of the attributed delay minutes.

Baseline (Period 12 2025-26): NR 0%, operator 100%, third party 0%. Period-on-period NR share shift +0.0 percentage points.

Cause-code level breakdowns and per-corridor decomposition are released to commercial-licence subscribers.

Source: Network Rail Historic Delay Attribution (HDA) for Period 13 2025-26. Responsibility parties follow the DAPR mapping in the delay_attribution_codes table. See delay-attribution methodology.

Commercial licence

Four derivations are released to commercial-licence subscribers rather than the public archive. Each one reconciles TRUST source-data against Network Rail's Historic Delay Attribution record independently, not republished from public statistics.

• Schedule 8 net position
• Why late — delay attribution
• Schedule 4 possession exposure
• Path utilisation — corridor breakdown

Available under commercial licence. Contact [email protected] for subscription terms.

Methodology & sources

All figures derive from Network Rail's NROD TRUST feed, processed via the Gauge Intelligence ingest pipeline. Period definitions, A2F (Arrival to Fifteen), the Wilson 90% interval, daily anomaly rules, cross-view reconciliation, and delay attribution are documented at:

Data window — period boundaries and the data-as-of cutoff
League tables — cross-view reconciliation across the four analytical views
Anomaly detection — daily A2F SPC rules
Delay attribution — DAPR cause-code breakdown
Forecasting — prediction intervals and possession-exposure estimates